The Amazon rainforest, often called the “lungs of the Earth” for absorbing vast CO₂ and producing oxygen, faces a potential tipping point where large-scale dieback transforms dense forest into degraded savanna. Recent 2025 studies warn this could begin in the 21st century under high-emission scenarios, with projections of up to 38% forest loss by 2100—exceeding the 20-25% threshold for irreversible collapse. While deforestation rates fell 11% in Brazil’s Amazon (to ~5,796 km²) in the year to July 2025, ongoing pressures from climate change, fires, and land-use could push the system past recovery.
Current Pressures and Projections
Deforestation slowed in 2025 under stricter enforcement, but fires surged amid drought. Models from CMIP6 (informing IPCC) project dieback starting this century if temperatures exceed ~32°C annually with precipitation below ~1,394 mm/year—conditions plausible under SSP5-8.5. A December 2025 PNAS study estimates 38% loss by 2100 from dual climate/land-use stress, crossing the critical threshold.
Consequences of Collapse
Dieback flips the Amazon from carbon sink to source, releasing billions of tons CO₂ and amplifying warming. Biodiversity plummets (1M+ species at risk), regional rainfall drops (affecting agriculture), and global oxygen/cooling services vanish. Savanna states lock in drier, fire-prone cycles.
Progress in 2025 offers hope—deforestation down, enforcement up—but high-emission paths risk the tipping point by mid-century.
Is the Amazon’s dieback inevitable, or can aggressive mitigation pull it back? The threshold approaches faster than models once predicted.